Low-limit rake

2 Dec 2008

Many people will swear up and down that $2/4 and $3/6 limit games can’t be beaten because of the rake.   I doubt they’re basing this pronouncement on an exhaustive sample, because I doubt there are any good players patient enough to play low stakes for the 3000 hours or so that would be necessary to get a reasonable sample.

So we turn to theory.   I have a theoretical argument that makes sense to me to explain why the rake must be beatable.   No one’s ever answered this argument.   I present it not because I’m certain that it’s right, but because I wish people would either refute it or STFU about low-limit rake until they can refute it.

Malmuth famously estimated that a good player would make 1 BBet/hour in the mid-limits. I haven’t played much mid-limit HE, but it’s not hard to imagine that the players are much worse in $3/6. Not a little worse.

If a bad player calls $6 when she really has only $1.50 in equity, but the same player wouldn’t be in a $15/30 game to make that call, that’s $4.50 toward the rake that isn’t happening at the mid-limits. That should be almost enough to overcome the higher percentage rake.

 

 

[My standard terse answer from now on, linking back here:]

No one’s ever demonstrated theoretically to my satisfaction that $2/4 is unbeatable. To my knowledge (I’m grunching) no one’s ever countered my belief that really bad players put enough equity in the pot to counteract the extra small bet or so in rake.

That said, obviously if you play $2/4 you’re only playing to have fun and not to make serious loot.